Nigeria’s Oil Output Declines 6.3% to 1.627 Million bpd in January 2026

 

Nigeria's oil sector faced renewed headwinds in the opening month of 2026, with total liquid hydrocarbon production dropping to an average of 1.627 million barrels per day (bpd), a 6.3% decline from the 1.737 million bpd recorded in January 2025.

According to the latest National Liquid Hydrocarbon Production Report from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), the figure also represents a 5.4% month-on-month decrease from December 2025's 1.544 million bpd.

The downturn underscores ongoing production challenges, including theft, sabotage, and infrastructure limitations, which have prevented Nigeria from consistently meeting domestic budget assumptions and OPEC quotas.

The 2026 national budget projects an average production of 1.84 million bpd at a benchmark price of $64.85 per barrel. January's output fell well short of this target, potentially straining federal revenues and increasing reliance on borrowing or other fiscal measures.

Compounding the issue, global crude prices have softened to around $67 per barrel, below levels that could offset lower volumes significantly.

OPEC's separate data, based on direct submissions, showed Nigeria's crude-only output (excluding condensates) at about 1.459 million bpd in January 2026—a modest rise from December but still under the group's allocated quota for the sixth straight month.

Industry analysts note that while local operators have made gains in some fields following asset divestments from international oil companies, broader recovery remains elusive without sustained security improvements and investments in upstream infrastructure.

Efforts to boost production align with longer-term goals, including ambitions to reach 2 million bpd by 2027, but early 2026 data signals a cautious start to the year for Africa's largest oil producer.

The decline highlights the urgent need for reforms to stabilize and grow the sector, which remains critical to Nigeria's economy despite diversification pushes.