Hardship Intensifies: Petrol Reaches N1,300/Litre in Wake of Middle East Geopolitical Crisis

 

Nigerians are grappling with intensified economic strain as the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, has surged to around N1,300 per litre in many parts of the country. The sharp increase, reported nationwide on March 9–10, 2026, follows rapid adjustments by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and independent marketers, triggered by escalating conflict in the Middle East involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.

Global crude oil benchmarks have rallied sharply, with Brent crude surpassing $100 per barrel amid fears of supply disruptions. This volatility has directly impacted Nigeria's deregulated downstream sector, where local refineries and importers pass on international market realities.

Dangote Refinery, the country's flagship domestic producer, raised its ex-depot price for petrol from N995 to N1,175 per litre in the latest adjustment—the fourth in under two weeks. Diesel followed suit, climbing to N1,620 per litre. Marketers purchasing at these rates have passed costs to consumers, with retail prices in Lagos ranging from N1,250 to N1,300 per litre, and higher in outlying areas (up to N1,350–N1,400 at some stations).

Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) officials confirmed the trend, noting purchases from depots like Pinnacle Oil at around N1,200 per litre, leading to location-based variations. Long queues have re-emerged at stations with marginally lower prices, as motorists rush to fill up amid uncertainty.

The ripple effects are widespread. Businesses warn of impending inflation spikes, with higher transport and logistics costs expected to drive up food and essential goods prices. The Organised Private Sector has expressed fears of operational strain, while PETROAN cautioned that prolonged Middle East instability could push petrol toward N2,000 per litre and diesel even higher.

This comes despite Nigeria's potential short-term gains from elevated crude export revenues. Experts note that while higher oil prices exceed the 2026 budget benchmark, domestic vulnerabilities—reliance on market-driven pricing post-subsidy removal—mean citizens bear the brunt through elevated living costs.

As the conflict shows no immediate signs of resolution, analysts urge vigilance. The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) attributes fluctuations to pure market forces, but public frustration mounts over the speed and scale of hikes.

For now, the Middle East war remains a distant geopolitical event—but its economic shockwaves are hitting Nigerian homes, businesses, and wallets hard, one litre at a time.