Power Crisis Deepens: National Grid Generation Plunges 11% to 2,898 MW Amid Persistent Gas Shortages

 Nigeria's electricity woes have intensified, with power generation on the national grid dropping significantly to 2,898 megawatts (MW) yesterday, marking an 11% decline from 3,222 MW recorded earlier in the week.

Data from the Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO) reveals the alarming trend, which officials attribute to ongoing gas supply constraints severely impacting thermal power stations—the backbone of the country's electricity mix.

According to NISO statements, as of 05:00 hours on Thursday, March 5, 2026, total generation stood at 3,940.53 MW, already well below expected levels due to gas limitations. Several generating units were forced to shut down between 06:00 and 08:00 hours that day because of inadequate gas deliveries, resulting in a cumulative loss of approximately 292 MW during that period alone.

Thermal plants require an estimated 1,588.61 million standard cubic feet (MMSCF) of gas per day to operate optimally, but persistent shortages—exacerbated by pipeline vandalism, maintenance issues, market debts, and seasonal factors—have kept actual supply far below this threshold.

This latest dip comes amid broader warnings from industry stakeholders. Just days earlier, NISO reported average generation hovering around 4,300 MW due to gas shortfalls slashing thermal output to less than half of required volumes. The dry season has further compounded the problem by reducing hydropower contributions, while gas-fired plants continue to grapple with supply disruptions.

The consequences are being felt nationwide. Homes, businesses, and industries face prolonged blackouts and forced load shedding, disrupting economic activities in Africa's most populous nation. Small and medium enterprises, already burdened by high operational costs from diesel generators, are particularly hard-hit.

Experts note that Nigeria's installed generation capacity exceeds 13,000 MW, yet actual output rarely surpasses 5,000 MW on good days—often dipping lower due to these systemic issues. In January 2026, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) reported a plant availability factor of just 36%, with only about 4,901 MW available for dispatch on average.

Stakeholders, including power generation companies, have repeatedly called for urgent reforms, including better enforcement of gas supply contracts, resolution of sector debts (estimated in trillions of naira), and accelerated investment in alternative sources like renewables to reduce over-reliance on gas.

As the crisis persists, citizens continue to demand reliable power supply, with many questioning the pace of progress since the sector's privatization over a decade ago.

NISO has urged patience while assuring that efforts are underway to restore stability, but without swift intervention on gas infrastructure and supply, experts warn that further declines could be imminent.

The power ministry and relevant agencies are yet to issue a detailed response to the latest figures, but the trend underscores the urgent need for structural solutions to Nigeria's chronic electricity deficit.